Surviving or Thriving in the Anthropocene? On one planet and a doughnut…

Welcome to the Anthropocene!

When considering something as fundamental as planetary survival, a good place to start is with a hard truth.
We live on a planet where human forces now far exceed the great forces of nature. Some examples: Humans have now transformed about 43% of the world’s land surface, compared to the 30% that was transformed during the last ice age; soil erosion caused by this land transformation exceeds natural geological processes; and carbon levels in the atmosphere now exceed 400 parts per million for the first time in 3 million years as a result of human activities. This phenomenon has led to the assertion that the earth has moved into a new geological epoch – the Anthropocene. Acknowledging this reality is fundamental to humans plotting a way to Survive and potentially Thrive in the Anthropocene.
The Anthropocene is said to have begun about 200 years ago when humanity shifted quite suddenly from its agricultural foundation to one based on fossil-fuels and industry. Importantly, the major systemic changes that constituted the industrial revolution took place over a period of only about 50 years – from about 1780AD to 1830AD.

One Planet…

The rest, as they say, is history… This shift in trajectory now leaves human habitation of our planet precariously balanced. Johan Rockström and colleagues have defined nine planetary boundaries that if transgressed could lead to abrupt changes in risk exposure; noting that for at least three – climate change, biodiversity loss and nitrogen loading – the boundaries have already exceeded. These outer planetary boundaries have been used to define a Safe Operating Space for Humanity.

…and a doughnut?

At the same time the planet faces significant human development challenges with more than a billion people living in poverty, and food, water and energy deprivation. This has led Kate Raworth to build on the work of Johan Rockström and define an inner boundary of social deprivation, giving rise to the economic 'doughnut’. The objective of all global economic policy, Kate Raworth suggests, is to get humanity out of the “Hole of Deprivation” whilst staying within the “Ceiling of Sustainability” – A Safe and Just Operating Space for Humanity (see below).

 

When taking such a view of our planetary challenges, the issue of equity is very difficult to evade. Raworth notes that just 50% of carbon emissions are produced by just 11% of people and 33% of the global nitrogen budget is used to produce meat for the European Union.

The Future: Survive or Thrive?

How are these issues of sustainability, social deprivation and equity likely to play out in the future? Jeffery Sachs and Johan Rockström suggest there are four possible future scenarios:

1) Kick away the ladder: Poorer developing economies simply need to settle for less;

2) Contract and converge: Rich developed economies magnanimously reduce their growth aspirations to allow faster growth in developing economies (no sniggers, please…);

3) Business as usual:  The future becomes increasingly hostile and volatile as resources become more scarce, the gap between rich and poor wider, and our climate more harsh; and

4) Transformational change: This is positive narrative where key global systems are fundamentally transformed to allow 9-10 Billion people to live on earth without deprivation of basic human needs.

Our global policy and personal choices today will determine which of these scenarios comes to fruition, and whether humanity is will survive, or even potentially thrive, in the Anthropocene.

Transforming key global systems

So what are these key global systems that would need to be transformed? Although a number of authors and institutions have considered this question from different perspectives there is a high degree of consistency around the Big 5 systems where the game will be won or lost.

1)      Energy: This is both the biggest threat and opportunity.  Transforming our global energy system from fossil fuels to renewable energy changes the entire picture. For example, the current total global energy requirements are only about 0.5% of the total available terrestrial solar power.

2)      Food: The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) estimates that under current consumption patterns we will need to produce more food in the next 40 years than we have produced in the last 8,000 years. Agriculture is already the biggest water user and reason for land transformation.

3)      Finance: At the centre of our current economic woes is an ailing global finance system that fails to account for social and environmental costs embedded in our economic activities. Further, the types of transitions needed in the production sector described will require vastly different financial flows.

4)      Governance: As illustrated by the recent fiasco at the 2013 UN climate talks in Warsaw - where all major civil society organisations walked out – our current global governance system has lost all legitimacy in the eyes of society. If we are to solve our global challenges in an equitable way we will need to build a global governance system that is embedded in a global citizenry

5)      Consumption: Ultimately, we will need to reconceive our notion of consumption and the make, break, waste society.

All this needs to happen, whilst at the same time ensuring that as much of the remaining biodiversity and ecological systems - that are at the basis of all life on earth - remain intact.

The Dawn of the Ecological Civilisation

When considering this, you would be right to assume the nature of the required change is equivalent to other major transitions that have occurred in the history of human civilisation (e.g. from an agricultural to an industrial civilisation). Various authors have described this future civilisation in different ways, but perhaps the most interesting conceptualisation comes from China. The Chinese government has described the need to transition from an industrial to an Ecological Civilisation – one that recognises global boundaries related to natural resources; the systemic connectedness between humans and ecosystems; and which seeks to build an equitable and inclusive society.

This may seem like an impossibly huge task when set against the urgent timeframes in which we have to get this right. But let me remind you that the major systemic changes of the industrial revolution took place in just 50 years. With current global communication and information systems, one can also conceive that the rate of change, once it gains momentum, may well be much more rapid.

Finally, at times like these we should draw inspiration from the words of Nelson Mandela, who was at the centre of one of the greatest social transformations of our time. In reflecting on these achievements, Madiba noted that: “It always seems impossible until it’s done”

 Key Readings:

Raworth K (2012) A safe and just space for humanity: Can we live within the doughnut? Oxfam Discussion Papers, 22pp. www.oxfam.org/en/policy/safe-and-just-space-humanity

Rockström J, Steffen W, Noone K, et al. (2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society, 14 (2).

Rockstrom J & Sachs J (2013) Sustainable development and planetary boundaries. Background paper for the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Goals. The Sustainable Development Solutions Network

Steffen W, Crutzen PJ, & McNeill JR (2007) The Anthropocene: are humans now overwhelming the great forces of nature. Ambio, 36(8), 614-621.

WWF (2012a) Living Planet Report 2012: Biodiversity, Biocapacity and Better Choices. 160pp.