Africa's Ecological Future: Divided Continent or Common Destiny?

In 1885 Africa’s colonial masters gathered in a ballroom in Berlin.  One can almost picture the scene as cigar smoke billowed in anticipation, omnipresent moustaches – those waxed and pointy types -  bristling with excitement and self importance. The mission of this pompous gathering was very clear: to agree on how the colonisers could carve up Africa so that they could exploit its valuable resources in a structured and ‘gentlemanly’ manner.

Figure 1: An artist’s depiction of the Berlin Conference, 1885 (from Wikipedia)

 To say that Africa was a unified entity prior to its colonisation, or the Berlin conference, would be incorrect. Africa, the birthplace of modern humans, has always been a rich and diverse place. However, I would argue that this brazen act of slicing up the continent for its exploitation, served to seal a common destiny for Africa. Indeed from a resource point of view, Africa’s story is a case of ‘the same old story with a different name’. From the unthinkable cruelty of the African slave-trade at its height in the 18^th century, through the gluttonous plunder of Africa’s wildlife in the 19^th century, to modern-day lopsided access agreements for exploitation of fisheries, land, mineral and fossil-fuel reserves; it is a story of the worth of Africa’s high-value resources being stripped and siphoned off to benefit primarily offshore interests and a handful of African ‘elites’, at the expense of the majority of Africans. This common history has relegated African states to the backbenches of the development standings. Of the 50 African States assessed, 35 are ranked in the lowest human development index category.

Figure 2: Global Human Development Index scores showing the majority of African States in the lowest category (United Nations Development Programme)

And yet, despite this inglorious past, Africa now finally stands on the launch pad of its economic development. Six of the top 10 fastest growing economies are located in Africa, and Africa will soon overtake Asia as the fastest growing global region. The critical question, however, is whether this economic growth will remain in the hands of the few (as it has in the past) or whether it will be converted into a broader improvement in the well-being of African societies. The current picture appears to be quite varied, as can be seen from the Boston Consulting Group Analysis (Figure 3). For instance: Off a similar base of a 3% GDP growth rate, Kenya is far more successful than South Africa in converting economic growth into an improvement in social wellbeing. Zambia, on the other hand, with a GDP growth rate of around 6% is even less successful in converting GDP growth into improved social wellbeing.

Figure 3: Boston Consulting Group analysis of  economic growth versus the change in social development for African states (From The Economist)

As can be expected, Africa's recent economic growth is coming at the expense of its rich and diverse ecosystems. Although Africa’s ecological footprint is still relatively modest in global terms, it has more than trebled since 1961 (Figure 4). Most concerning is the question whether this increased impact on ecological systems is effectively being translated into improved human development. This on a continent where many rural communities still rely directly of ecosystems and the services they provide. For instance, many Africans still rely on water taken directly from rivers or wells, that has not been purified by any government funded infrastructure. In other words, this increased impact on ecological systems, rather than being converted to improved human well-being, may actually contribute to human deprivation.

Figure 4: Africa’s Ecological Footprint (1961-2008) (From Africa Ecological Footprint Report)

 Africa has choices 

 

“Africa has choices. Embracing a more sustainable approach to development can generate benefits in terms of environmental security, human well-being and competitiveness. The choices made today about infrastructure, energy and food production will shape our opportunities and options far into the future.”

Donald Kaberuka, President, African Development Bank

Jim Leape, Director General, WWF

 In The Africa Ecological Footprint Report

 Being at such an early stage of its development, choices made now by African states will have a disproportionately large influence on their future development trajectory.  Several potential future development scenarios therefore exist for African economies (Figure 5). It is plausible that, (1) The promising economic growth does not materialise and African States continue to languish in the low human development category, or, (2) African states develop their economies at the expense of their ecological systems, but this new wealth is captured by the few ‘elites’ and is not converted to improved social and human development, or, (3) African states follow the path of the ‘global North’, by increasing their human  development index at the expense of their environment, or, (4) African States find ways to embark on a new development trajectory that stimulates an improvement in the human development, whilst maintaining the health and integrity of the ecosystems that sustain their societies and economies.



Figure 5: The Ecological Footprint of nations vs their Human Development Index, showing potential development trajectories for African nations (in pink). From the Living Planet Report (2012)

Shaping a new African development path together

When considering the potential of African States shaping a new development path with lower ecological impacts (Scenario 4 above), it is extremely unlikely that one or two States will be able to walk this path alone. The reasons for this are twofold: Firstly, Africa’s natural resources are spread broadly across a number of different states. Secondly, the capital and/or technology needed to develop these resources will initially have to come from elsewhere (i.e. more developed nations), and will come with access conditions! So if one State tries to negotiate stricter access conditions on its own, the capital and technology simply flows to another State. Money, like water, follows the path of least resistance...

African States will therefore need to stand together if they are to shape a new development path. Institutions such as the African Union and development finance institutions such as the African Development Bank, will play a key role in creating a level playing field for investment into Africa’s development.

Too Big to Fail…

To use a phrase that was coined during the financial crisis of 2008, Africa is simply “too big to fail…”. Purely from a point of view of size, Africa is larger than the US, Europe, China and India combined. If Africa were to follow the same ecologically destructive development path that most current developed nations have followed, the planet will move into a disastrously volatile state.

Taking the positive perspective; in a modern globalised world, with unprecedented pressure on diminishing natural resources, and where Africa holds a substantial proportion of these resources, the world needs Africa to succeed. The world and Africa need to manage these resources in a sustainable manner.

Ironically, Africa, the birth place of humans that has been so abused over the course of modern history, now holds the keys to humanity's future.